IN THIS ISSUE: January 8, 2003 To Archive Index Hooray for Internet Xmas! Online Xmas Sales Up 29‰ Over 2001 Book Review: The Blankenhorn Effect: How to Put Moore’s Law to Work for You -- Geeky But Fascinating Are Browser Keywords Worth the Money?

You Go Santa!

HOORAY FOR INTERNET CHRISTMAS!
ONLINE XMAS SALES UP 29% OVER 2001!

By B.L. Ochman

At least there's one ray of hope for the US economy!

After a record Online Christmas sales period, e-commerce in the US during 2002 - reaching approximately $74 billion - blew away all previous records with a 40 per cent leap over 2001 levels.

ComScore Networks' late-breaking e-commerce results for cumulative consumer online sales for the period from Nov. 1 through Dec. 20, 2002 reached $12.6 billion, up 29 percent versus the same period last year. Non-travel sales increased 23 percent versus year-ago to $8.5 billion, while online travel sales increased 51 percent to $4.1 billion.

Traditional Retail Sales Drooped
ComScore said in a statement "This is particularly impressive considering the fragile economy and one of the worst holiday retail seasons in recent memory."

The holiday season may have disappointed retailers generally, but Online shops did well, according to ComScore and others.The survey counts Online purchases by US consumers connecting from home or work,regardless of whether the seller was located in the US.

Children Influence Buying
A second study shows that children drove a good amount of Online shopping. More than half of parents with Web access (56 percent) say their children have asked them to buy something they saw Online, according to a study conducted by America Online (AOL) and Roper/ASW. Called the "Cyberstudy on E-Commerce," it indicates that the most popular categories for Online shopping are travel reservations and tickets, computer hardware and software, and clothing.

 

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Book Review

THE BLANKENHORN EFFECT: HOW TO PUT MOORE’S LAW TO WORK FOR YOU -- GEEKY BUT FASCINATING

As a complete non-geek, I approached journalist Dana Blankenhorn’s new book, The Blankenhorn Effect: How to Put Moore’s Law to Work for You, with trepidation.

Usually, when I read anything more technical than instructions on how to make pop corn, my eyes glaze over and my mind dulls. But, despite the grandiose title, I found myself thoroughly engrossed in Blankenhorn’s treatise on technology in general and the Internet in particular.

Moore's Law is a 1965 prediction by Gordon Moore, then director of research for Fairchild Semiconductor, who said that computer chips would get twice as fast every year or two, which meant that computers could become faster and faster, cheaper and cheaper, smaller and smaller, with applications limited only by imagination.

Change is everywhere
After explaining how Moore’s Law impacts on every industry and on the Internet itself, Blankenhorn shows how Moore’s prediction has changed the way we communicate. These changes are everywhere and impact on everything we do now and in the future, Blankenhorn explains.

Blankenhorn says you can use his interpretation of Moore’s Law, which he calls "the Blankenhorn effect, "not just to predict the future but to project yourself into it and make a great new future for yourself and your family." Despite this rather pretentious premise, the book is fascinating and wonderfully written.

The Internet has already changed the future: when everyone can gain intelligence, and everyone is connected, then the costs of buying and selling can start drifting toward zero, thanks to Moore’s law. As a result, Blankenhorn notes, your job may change quickly and you need to be ready. In the world of Moore’s law, trained minds are more important than willing hands.

Internet has turbo-charged Moore’s Law
The Internet has turbo-charged Moore's Law by allowing close collaboration between people in different countries. Business research can be done in minutes instead of days. Problems that once frustrated great laboratories can be broken down into small pieces and solved with distributed computing.

If you think the pace of technology is fast, Blankenhorn says, "you ain't seen nothing yet." Technical revolutions feed on one another, transforming industries, economies and societies. The impact of such innovations as the consumer Internet continues and the impact of others, like distributed or "peer to peer" computing has yet to be felt.

 

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Hard as it is to imagine, the 1964 IBM S/360 computer – the first general mainframe -- was the size of several refrigerators laid end to end, and had less computing power than today’s cell phones.

In fact, advances in chip technology have come much faster than Moore predicted, and have forced some industries out of existence (TV Repair for example) and imposed dizzying change on others (warehousing, shipping and manufacturing.)

Because satellite and wireless links improve with Moore's Law, broadband will be available in deserts, jungles, and in the Australian outback. Therefore, Blankenhorn says, the price of digital bandwidth is going to fall and keep falling.

Competing with the Outback
This means the Internet's vast libraries will be available in the outback too and that companies in cities will have to learn to compete with and win against the trained minds in the outback and everywhere else.

The Internet rides all the links created for these other media -- TV, satellites, telephone cables, radio waves. "You can also think of the Internet as a vast university, a global learning center, where vast pools of knowledge, semi-knowledge and rumor are available to be read, heard and responded to," Blankenhorn writes.

America leads in Internet innovation because we have personal liberty, democracy and free capitalism, Blankenhorn maintains. "The more free people are the more they'll communicate and the more likely that their communications will find a collaborator, who can help turn these ideas into innovation. Communication is greatest among people who aren’t afraid to communicate."

Moore’s law has physical limits which some say will be reached by 2017, but Blankenorn says it doesn't matter. Change is unstoppable.

Blankenhorn advises readers to "apply Moore’s law to the industry where you work, or to the life you and your children lead. Apply your imagination to it and find new dreams that will give your career new direction.

"The future is coming faster and faster," he says. "Isn’t it wonderful?"

Dana Blankenhorn has been a business journalist for nearly 20 years and has covered the online world professionally since 1985. He founded the "Interactive Age Daily" for CMP Media, and has written for the Chicago Tribune, Advertising Age, and dozens of other publications over the years. The Blankenhorn Effect: How to Put Moore’s Law to Work for You, is published by Trafford, $24.95, paperback.

Related article in Whats Next Online Archive:
Life After the Internet (archive category "Strategy")

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ARE BROWSER KEYWORDS WORTH THE MONEY?
MAYBE. MAYBE NOT.

Every day, 262 million times, people use keywords to search the Internet. Net-to-Phone users, AOL subscribers and "My Wallet" users, among many others, need only type keywords into their browser window to be brought to a site that purchased that word or phrase from igetnet.

The firm’s Online marketing technology is called IGN KeywordsTM and it is available to people who download a software patch from the company’s Web site or who get it bundled with other software.

 

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Parasite Charges
The fact that igetnet is bundled with other software causes cries of "parasite software" and provokes discussion group conversations about how to remove it from systems. Johnson insists that igetnet always asks users if they would like to install the patch rather than automatically installing it on their hard drives. However, a Google search on "igetnet" produces many sites that contain instructions for removing unwanted igetnet software, making it hard to believe Johnson’s claim.

Igetnet’s clients include Performance Science International, Nike, Perrier, Western Union, MasterCard and Hallmark. More than 44,000 keywords have been purchased by Igetnet’s 8,000 annual customers, and 100,000 users a day get the software patch, according to Todd Johnson, president.

Keyword Gold Rush
Igetnet keyword prices range from $250 a year for a regional phrase such as "Victoria Texas Real Estate" to $7,500 a year for a two-word generic like "car part." Customers get right of first refusal for the same words or phrases the next year, but no assurance of future price.

Johnson says a keyword gold rush has begun, with companies of all sizes are buying their corporate trademarked names in the form of IGN Keywords which insures that customers will easily find their website without having to search through dozens of search engine results containing affiliated, related or imitation sites.

Companies are also grabbing up the generic names of the products or services that they offer. For example, by typing in "birthday cards" you are instantly connected to the exact page on the "Hallmark" website where birthday cards can be purchased. Only one company can buy each keyword or phrase.

You can check keyword availability on the igetnet website, but purchases have to be made through one of the company’s 53 independent distributors, all of whom adhere to a standard price scheme, and none of whom are listed on the company Web site. How the words are bought is a bit of a mystery.

Should you join the rush?
Should you rush to buy browser keywords? Perhaps. Many people are intimidated by search engines and overwhelmed by the huge number of results any search will return. Someone who wants to find your specific company easily might find browser keywords an easy route and in that case you could benefit.

For those novice Web users, browser keywords maybe an attractive alternative. However, search engines, particularly the bigger ones, get more intuitive and easier to use all the time, removing the confusion barrier.

Users want to comparison shop
A major value of the Internet is the opportunity it provides for comparison shopping for price, value and features. Only a search engine search can offer opportunities for comparison.

If your budget allows an investment of a few thousand dollars a year for this sales tool, it seems worth a try – at least at this early stage.

However, if your budget is tight – and whose isn’t these days – you’re better off investing in pay-per-click advertising on Google or Overture, where you often can buy the second or third most popular search terms in a category for as little as $.05 a click.

One Igetnet competitors is Hot Phrase. However, Google searches on "keyword browsing," "browser searching" and "browser search keywords" failed to turn up igetnet or any of its competitors. Looks like they could use some lessons in search engine placement. :>)

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